It's deja-vu all over again. The same stupid prognostication is being put forth.
In an exact repeat of last season, most everyone from talk-show hosts to any baseball publication you can lay your hands on, is predicting that the Reds will be bottom-feeders once more. That a fifth or sixth-place finish is their only destiny.
In harsher language, the consensus is that Cincy will show themselves to be nothing more than crap. That they'll stink to high heaven.
This despite the fact that the same dire predictions about Cincinnati's supposed futility in '06 were completely refuted. Expected to be an also-ran, the Reds surprised many by hanging tough in the Central Division race and staying in contention until the season's final weekend.
Only a disastrous run in late August and early September prevented the Reds from advancing to the playoffs. Though Cincy's third-place finish was hardly anything to thump their chests over, it nonetheless demonstrated that the Reds weren't exactly the pushovers so many had foreseen. At the very least, the Reds were more competitive that almost everyone had envisioned.
But apparently, their surprising play of last season left no impact. It's as if nobody noticed. Or if they did, it must have been considered a fluke because in the minds of the baseball gurus, the Reds once again just don't rate. Cincy simply doesn't show up on the radar screen. It's as if they're all but invisible.
Sports Illustrated handed the Reds their biggest insult this preseason by ranking them a pathetic 27th out of a possible 30 major league teams. Talk about your proverbial slap in the face. SI seems to be saying that not only are the Reds putrid but it's a total waste of their time to even show up.
In the eyes of SI, Cincy is embarrassingly bad and hasn't a sliver of a chance to enjoy a successful season. To this venerated sports periodical, Cincinnati's karma is all negative.
But don't buy that tripe. It's totally bogus.
What it reveals more than anything else, is that SI is lazy and not willing to do nearly enough homework. Because anyone who closely studies and appraises the Reds couldn't possibly come to such a disparaging conclusion.
Yes, the Reds have some question marks and potentially a hole or two in both their lineup and rotation, but this team isn't all that far away from being totally legit. It's much more likely that Jerry Narron's club will be a contender rather than a bust. The Reds have more upside and potential than they do drawbacks.
And you can hold me to the following promise. If the Reds finish in the cellar or should they validate SI's absurd assertion that they're the fourth worst team in baseball, I vow to shut down this site. I'll call it quits and put Irish and Reds into mothballs. I'll put my pen down forever. That's how sure I am about the Reds' viability.
They may not be great but I know in my gut that they'll compete and battle and that they'll win more games than they'll lose.
My faith in the Reds is not based on wishful thinking but rather on what I consider sound reasoning and a serious evaluation of Cincy's roster. They've got more than enough horses to make an impact.
The top of the rotation is impressive, bordering on stellar. Very few teams can boast of a 1-2 punch like righties Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. They're both inning-eaters, not to mention tough-as-nails. In '06, Arroyo was an All-Star and Harang tied for the league-lead in wins with 16.
If this talented twosome approximates what they did last year, it will be an impossibility for the Reds to have a down season.
Where the so-called experts claim the Reds are most vulnerable, their Achilles' heel if you will, is with their third and fourth starters, namely Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse.
Granted, Milton has struggled in his two years in the Queen City and Lohse probably isn't nearly the pitcher he was a while back with the Twins but these experienced vets have the goods to be productive.
What's more, it's hard to imagine that both of these hurlers will have a substandard campaign. Based on past performance and basic probability, it figures that one or the other or conceivably both of these guys will be consistent and help lend some additional stability to the staff.
The wildcard factor in all of this is righty Matt Belisle, who'll occupy the fifth hole. Long touted by the Reds' brass to have splendid stuff, Belisle showed flashes of excellence late in '06 and once more during the just concluded spring.
Young and motivated, Belisle could become the most talked about story concerning the Reds over the next six months. If Belisle shines, the Reds will be armed and dangerous.
Unlike a year ago when the bullpen was iffy and questionable, Cincy now possesses ample talent in this critical area. Seasoned and accomplished relievers like David Weathers, Mike Stanton and Rheal Cormier are more asset than liability.
Even more encouraging is that the Reds now have some viable younger alternatives to turn to in the middle and late innings. Right-handers Todd Coffey, Kirk Saarloos, Jared Burton and southpaws Bill Bray and Jon Coutlangus are all 27-years of age or younger and each is capable of producing.
Coffey is a hard-thrower who has progressed every year in the bigs and could soon become a shutdown kind of guy. Saarloos, a contributor as both a starter and a reliever in Oakland, looked solid in the spring and has been very reliable early in '07.
Burton , a Rule 5 Draft selection currently on the DL, has the Reds ga-ga about his potential and is reputed to possess amazing stuff.
Finally, there's the gifted Bray, also now on the DL, who might end up being the centerpiece of last year's trade with Washington. Bray is only beginning to find himself as a reliever. Given the right set of circumstances, he could develop into a formidable force.
It would be remiss if no mention was made of the disappointing Gary Majewski at this juncture but until he demonstrates he can stay healthy and get on the mound, he merits little discussion.
As of now, the plan is to have a closer-by-committee approach with Weathers or Stanton figuring to get most of the workload with perhaps Coffey and Saarloos chipping in now and then.
Though it's clearly preferable to have a go-to guy in that capacity, the Reds can surely survive and get by with what they have if most everyone pitches to form.
And if the ultra competitive Eddie Guardado can return from the 60-day DL in June and pitch anywhere near to the level he did after his acquisition from Seattle, then suddenly the Reds' bullpen becomes all the stronger and it ceases to be an area of any real concern.