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NO. 1 RANKING WAY TOO PREMATURE
As this is being written, there are a number of college football prognosticators who believe that Notre Dame is the number one team in the country.
They seem to be convinced that come January, the Golden Domers will pay a visit to Arizona where they'll be playing for the national championship.
You simply can't avoid this pro-Irish hype. It's omnipresent. It's everywhere. It's creating a groundswell.
It seems like everybody wants to get in on the act. Whether it's venerable publications, cutting-edge websites or just those popular talking heads, so many are singing the praises of ND and hopping aboard the bandwagon.
There's only one fundamental problem with this tsunami of support for the Irish. It's probably dead wrong. It's most likely misplaced.
The bandwagon may not be ready to roll. And those media types who persist in thinking that it is probably where nipping at some Irish whiskey instead of doing an honest appraisal of the Irish roster.
Now, let's get a few things straight before proceeding any further.
This reporter admires and respects the Domers. They're clearly a program back on the charts and rising with a bullet.
What Charlie Weis has done in a brief 18 months on the job is nothing short of amazing. The dynamo coach has been a wizard at recruiting, a master at changing the culture and an inspiration when it comes to raising expectations.
Notre Dame is undeniably light-years ahead of where they were when Weis first grabbed the reigns. But the truth remains that ND is still very much a work in progress.
Weis has laid a firm foundation and the framework he's constructed is solid and will be able to withstand virtually anything thrown against it.
Yet, Charlie's house is far from completed. Plenty of work remains for the Irish to be considered a finished product.
Yes, an unexpected 9 and 3 season provided a promising start -- a nice base from which to build.
But any objective observer saw that the Irish had some significant chinks in their game. A simple coat of paint won't cover up their deficiencies. A major job of patchwork is required.
That's why it seems so premature to place the Irish at the top of the heap at this particular time. It's too much, too fast. A classic case of jumping the gun.
There's very little doubt that eventually Weis, with his savvy, relentless work ethic and sheer force of personality, will get the Domers to the mountaintop. He literally won't settle for anything less. Notre Dame's return to glory will probably happen sooner than later.
But that's in the immediate future and the subject at hand is the present. The here and now.
And when it comes to this precise moment, it's hard to justify placing ND at the top of the rankings. It seems more wishful thinking than clear analytical evaluation.
Sure, you can make a strong case for including the Irish in your preseason Top 10. And it wouldn't be a huge stretch to put them somewhere among the elite five.
But at the very top, at the apex? No way. That's pushing the envelope beyond reason.
A hard and honest assessment of the entire Notre Dame team reveals why a national championship run doesn't look likely.
A suspect defense is the biggest roadblock to such grandiose aspirations. Yes, the Irish return nine starters on that side of the ball but that's not saying much. Not when the "D" was spotty and vulnerable to begin with.
Just because you've got a group of guys coming back doesn't automatically mean they've gotten demonstratively better.
As currently constructed, the Irish have average corners, an inconsistent pass rush, uncertainty at linebacker and a worrisome lack of overall speed. You don't find many number one teams with that many shortcomings.
Now, ND does have some studs on defense including playmaking strong safety Tom Zbikowski, talented defensive end Victor Abiamiri and gutsy tackle Derik Landri. But unless they get a world of help from unexpected sources, like maybe from some of the heralded freshmen coming in, the defense figures to fall in the mediocre to competent range.
And you're not putting any banners on the wall with an just an average "D."
Also, everyone just assumes that the ND offense will pick right up from where it left off. A juggernaut going on to bigger and more spectacular things.
And that scenario might indeed play out. With the creative Weis acting as maestro and the superb Brady Quinn starring as his lead performer, the points should come in bunches. Add standouts Jeff Samardzija and Darius Walker to the mix and you've got something very potent.
But don't forget, the offense lost four key contributors including dependable tight end Anthony Fasano and stellar receiver Maurice Stovall. You don't lose that kind of production and not feel it.
So it's possible there might be a period of adjustment and settling in before Quinn and company begin hitting on all cylinders. Just another reason that should temper any talk of being numero uno.
Another concern that can't be ignored is a kicking and return game that, aside from the exciting Zbikowski, is clearly an unknown.
Finally, no matter what the experts may tell you, the schedule is fraught with landmines. No less than six trap games dot the schedule and that doesn't even count the finale at USC. Going undefeated through that gauntlet would be a minor miracle.
So when you put it all together, the current state of the team and the challenges it faces, a true picture comes into focus.
Yes, the Irish will be good. Weis will continue to move them forward and point them in the right direction. They'll continue their ascent upward.
But as far as reaching the summit, it doesn't figure to happen. At least, not right now. A bit more time is needed to scale that last piece of terrain.
It says here that the Irish will win 10 games in '06. Anything beyond that would be pure gravy.
So please don't buy into the propaganda of the Irish being number one or running the table to win the national title. Sure, it'll happen. And soon. But not this year. Regardless of premature predictions to the contrary. |