There's no getting around it. It's a cold hard fact. It's as certain as the law of gravity. It's a baseball given.
If Bronson Arroyo struggles, if the lanky right-hander sputters and falters, then the Reds are in a heap of trouble. Under that scenario, Cincinnati's prospects are about as promising as a guppy's would be in a piranha infested river. In other words, it's lights-out.
While there's no denying that the Reds are being undercut by a myriad of factors including an atrocious bullpen, limited clutch hitting, dubious managing and an inexcusable lack of success against sad sack ball clubs, Arroyo's recent failures loom large in their current malaise.
Arroyo is indispensable to any success the Reds hope to enjoy, be it immediate or in the long-term. Considering the monetary investment that Cincy has in him and given his importance to the starting staff, a compelling case can be made that he's the second most essential pitcher on the team behind only the splendid Aaron Harang.
For the Reds to survive, let alone flourish, Arroyo must consistently produce as he did in '06 when the 30-year old won 14 times, had a solid ERA ( 3.29 ) and led the National League in innings pitched.
Arroyo is that critical bridge from Harang to the middle and backend of the starting rotation. Hence, it's incumbent upon him to pitch deep into games, put up W's and give guys like Matt Belisle, Kyle Lohse and the very promising Homer Bailey some breathing room should they labor from time to time.
If Arroyo slumps and as of late, he's been slumping badly having yielded six or more runs in five of his last half-dozen starts, it's impossible for the Reds to get any sort of traction or to go on any kind of winning streak.
The fact that the Arroyo of '07 has been just a shell of the pitcher he was last season has been the most disappointing and unexpected story of the Reds' season thus far. Entering the campaign, Arroyo was thought to be somewhat of a sure thing, a player the Reds could completely trust. He was perceived to be like a rock.
Instead, the rock has turned to clay. Arroyo's ugly record of 2 and 8 along with a nasty 5.24 ERA indicate just how far the 6-5, 195-pounder has descended. The Reds can only pray he will soon bottom out if he hasn't already.
As recently as May 16th, Arroyo appeared to be his dependable self, the owner of a 2-2 ledger and a sparkling 2.64 ERA. But on that perhaps fateful night in San Diego, manger Jerry Narron unwisely overextended Arroyo and the weary righty lost in the ninth having dealt some 129 pitches.
Coincidence or not, Arroyo hasn't been the same since. He has been battered, racked and strafed. Suddenly, Arroyo is having hellish problems in the first-inning, thereby putting his team in monumental holes from which there's no escape.
At first, Arroyo pooh-poohed any suggestion that he may be experiencing a dead arm. The personable Floridian said he felt fine and that there was nothing wrong with his wing.
But now, he's not so sure. Having clearly lost velocity to everyone who's been monitoring him, Arroyo conceded he's missing some zip on his fastball. And that subtle though significant variance of throwing 88 mph instead of 91 can mean all the difference between hits and outs and wins and losses.
There has even been some thought by Narron and his coaching staff of pushing Arroyo back a bit, thereby giving him an additional day or two of rest in hopes that might rejuvenate him. At this stage, anything is probably worth a try but given Arroyo's competitive nature, the one-time All-Star might bristle over such a move.
Arroyo himself is trying to shake himself from his lethargy by altering his throwing and workout patterns between starts. He's even changed his diet, wondering if what he takes in might somehow be related to what comes out. Out of his pitching arm, that is!.
We shall soon see. But the current situation is intolerable for both Arroyo and the team for which he pitches. A breakthrough is imperative if the season, for both parties, is to be salvaged.
It's hard to imagine that the dominant hurler that anchored the '06 Reds' staff along with the tough-as-nails Harang, has lost it. It doesn't seem feasible that Arroyo won't eventually find himself and get his groove back.
But because Arroyo isn't overpowering and must rely heavily on guile, savvy and control, his margin for error isn't as great as someone like Harang, whose sheer velocity can cover-up occasional mistakes. Since Arroyo is more of a finesse guy who doesn't throw particularly hard, he doesn't have that luxury. If Arroyo isn't on top of his game, if he doesn't have full command of his arsenal of pitches, he's left vulnerable and at risk.
And that's what happened as of late. His command has been off, either slightly or to a great extent and as a result, he's been touched up big-time. The Reds look for Arroyo to get his feel back right away if not sooner.
Since Arroyo is in the midst of what should be considered his peak years, it's surprising that he would be experiencing such an extended rough patch. The periodic hiccup or two is to be expected but a lengthy meltdown isn't. If Arroyo's woes continue for much longer, a real sense of concern and angst will take hold of management, his teammates and perhaps even Arroyo himself.
Lately, because of his inability to get the job done, because of the fitful time he's been having, Arroy-No would be a more fitting name for Bronson. What the Reds so desperately need is a quick return to the not-so-distant past, when the former Red Sox was going like gangbusters and everything was more like Arroy-Yo.