Not being able to count upon something that was supposed to be a given, can undermine even the best of teams. And when a perceived asset verges on being a liability, you're probably in for a world of hurt.

Count the Reds among the hurting!

For a once heralded pitching staff, thought to be the bedrock of this club, is faltering badly. The Reds' starters have become shaky at best. Once dependable, Cincy's rotation is now laboring, seemingly at a loss as to how to recapture its previous form.

Things are clearly deteriorating. There's no stopper to be found. No one arm on which to rely. Presently, when a Reds' starter toes the slab, you have no clue as to how he'll fare. It's become a total crap shoot. And lately, snake eyes has been getting rolled out quite often.

When the season began, optimism abounded and Reds' management was sky high about the prospects of getting a quality start on most nights. Finally, at long last, Cincy appeared to have a quintet of hurlers who could keep the Reds in games and make things tough on the opposition. It was hard to envision starting pitching as being any sort of a problem, let alone a headache. But so much for the best laid plans of mice and men.

Injuries, pronounced inconsistency and possible attrition have all conspired to reduce the Reds starters to mediocre status, if not worse. Only one, righty Johnny Cueto has been relatively reliable. But even he has experienced an extended rough patch since late June, including an infamous performance against the Phillies in which he didn't even get out of the first inning.

The Reds pitching began its slow spiral downward when Edison Volquez was shelved. For some reason, people have continued to spout the notion that Aaron Harang is Cincy's horse but don't you believe it. When he's right and healthy, Volquez is without doubt, the Reds best and most talented pitcher.

Coming off a huge 2008 in which he won 17 games and proved himself to be a revelation, Volquez seemed on the brink of stardom. But, unwisely, he went macho and taxed himself to the limit by pitching in both a Winter League and the WBC Classic.

As a result, his arm was overstressed and after just nine starts '09, he found himself on the 60-day disabled list. No team can afford to lose its stud and not have it have a devastating ripple effect on the rest of the staff. Minus Volquez, Cincy's staff went from promising to rather suspect.

At best, Volquez isn't expected back until sometime in mid-August.

After a brutal '08 campaign, it was hoped that a slimmed down Harang would rebound and reprise his success when he won 53 games over a four-year span. But record wise (5-11), it's been another frustrating season for the 6-7 righthander and it's been suggested that Aaron has lost both velocity and hop off his pitches. Harang has thrown a passel of innings since '04 (1,029) and it's very possible that wear and tear has set in.

Among Harang's faults this year has been a proclivity for giving up the big inning. Even more disturbing, however, has been Harang's inability to hold onto multiple-run leads in games the Reds were controlling. You expect you're supposed go-to guy to preserve and protects leads, not fritter them away.

Harang remains a gritty competitor and battles every step of the way. What's more, he's always there to take the ball every fifth day. His decent ERA (4.25) is also evidence that the veteran still knows how to get by on guile when saddled with less than stellar stuff. But you have to wonder if Harang's glory days are behind him and if his arm will continue to lose air.

The Reds desperately need Harang to be both productive and a workhorse if the staff is to hold its own. Whether Harang is up to that challenge is highly debatable.

Like Harang, Bronson Arroyo has logged plenty of mound time in Cincinnati (123 starts). Arroyo is an innings-eater and is durable as the day is long.

And when he's on, Arroyo can frustrate opponents with his sneaky stuff and precise location. But Arroyo is one hurler who literally operates on the edge. His margin for error is razor-thin, if not downright infinitesimal.

If Arroyo is off just slightly and not hitting his spots, he can become a punching bag. In 10 of his 20 starts thus far, Arroyo has been pounded for five or more runs. Moreover, in three of those outings, he was absolutely massacred (eight or more runs). Talk about being taken to the woodshed.

Because Arroyo walks such a fine line, he's prone to being maddeningly streaky. He fluctuates wildly. It's either one extreme or the other, very good or downright awful.

Hence, though he's rung up some decent win totals (14, 15 and 10 this year), he's not altogether consistent or dependable. Arroyo really struggles trying to string together three or four quality starts in succession. Arroyo is nothing if not erratic.

Going forward, for the Reds to have a merely decent staff, they'll need Arroyo to stabilize himself and avoid the embarrassing blowouts. Unfortunately, it's no better than even money that the blond righty can do just that.

As stated before, on balance, Johnny Cueto has probably been the Reds best pitcher. But lately, the precocious righty has been touched up for five or more runs in four of his last eight starts, including the aforementioned travesty in Philadelphia. No question Cueto is slumping somewhat. But some allowance must be made for Cueto's youth and the fact that he's still learning how to function and win at the big league level.

At his best, Cueto's got electric stuff and can dominate but, he too, can fall prey to the Arroyo syndrome, namely letting games get away in a hurry.

Cueto's upside is considerable and there's no doubt he's shown definite improvement in his first two years with the Reds. His rate of progression has been more than satisfactory.
Despite his lapses, the kid has been relatively solid (8-7, 3.78 ERA) a good portion of the time.

But Cueto needs to be even better, but quick, if the Reds are to survive in '09. By default, Cueto has become the Reds' top dog. As a result, he must assume the pressure-packed role of being the stopper which is a tall order for someone just in the infancy of his career. Currently, the Reds have nowhere else to turn, so it's up to Cueto to demonstrate he's grown up enough to carry a staff.

For those willing to do their homework, it was hard to imagine Micah Owings being much more than ordinary when he joined the Reds. After all, he'd been a below .500 pitcher in the bigs.

But Owings had a bang-up spring with strikeouts galore so it was hoped that perhaps he might have a breakout year.

Sorry, no go. Owings has basically performed at a level his background would suggest. Neither his record nor ERA (6-10, 5.33) will inspire kudos or praise.

While you can't fault his effort, he does seem to come to play, you can criticize Owing's habit of getting raked. Sure, he might author a solid game here and there but most likely, he'll follow it up with two or three clunkers. There's simply no consistent body of work here. It's no coincidence that whenever Owings is scheduled to pitch, the betting line almost always favors the opposition.

That's not to say Owings can't be a serviceable pitcher. He does have an adequate arsenal but like Arroyo, Owings must be almost letter-perfect in order to survive and win. He simply can't get it done when he's not close to being his best.

Realistically, the Reds can't expect much from Owings. Not until Owings is better known for his pitching rather than his remarkable hitting will he be any kind of asset to the Reds' staff.

Finally, we come to the wild card of all this staff discussion. The one arm that could conceivably make a difference. He clearly is the X-factor.

Enter Homer Bailey. The highly touted prospect who it seems the Reds have been waiting on forever though the lanky Texan just recently turned 23-years old.

To say Bailey has had a spotty big league career would be putting it mildly. But injuries and the fact that the Reds kept bringing him up and farming him out have hampered his development.

Now, he's back in the majors, seemingly more mature, focused and armed with a much better splitter.

But, so far, the results have been very mixed. Overall, in the six outings since his recall, Bailey has managed just two quality starts including a 7-plus inning beauty that the bullpen ultimately blew.

So who really knows if Bailey is onto something or not? Given his checkered history, Bailey is far from being a sure thing. He must still be classified as a huge if until he proves himself over the long haul. But, boy, would his emergence give the Reds' staff a major shot in the arm.

Sans Volquez, Cincy's starters have been barely passable as we head into the season's second-half. Harang has struggled, Arroyo blows hot and cold, Cueto has scuffled as of late, Owings isn't even ordinary and who really knows about Bailey?

That's not a lot to go on. Though not stiffs, neither are the Reds' starters standouts. They've shown themselves to be flawed, erratic and undependable.

But there's no denying that even without Volquez, the potential is there for this staff to at least be competitive. Ample ability is present. Talent isn't necessarily an issue. Execution and getting results have been.

Right now, the Reds are being burdened by their starting pitching. Isn't time this underachieving quintet began living up to their preseason projections?